BRAVEHEART
You've come to fight as free men, and free men you are. What will you do without that freedom? Will you fight?Fight and you may die. Run, and you'll live... at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take oru freedom! (William Wallace).
Every man dies, not every man really lives. (William Wallace)
I shall tell you of William Wallace. Historians from England will say I am a liar, but history is written by those who have hanged heroes. (Robert the Bruce)
Your heart is free. Have the courage to follow it. (William Wallace’s father)
Courage?!? He has courage, so does a dog. But it is exactly the ability to compromise that makes a man noble. (Robert Bruce leper father)
From the movie “Braveheart” by Mel Gibson.
The English want to become Braveheart. They were the rulers, and now they want to be dominated. They want to turn this around and they want to appear as brave warriors looking for their own freedom. Teresa May’s moment of triumph doesn’t last: on friday the British Prime Minister had seemingly managed to convince all its ministers to support her Brexit strategy. Today, however, Teresa May is hanging in the balance again after the resignation of David Davis, the Brexit minister who led the negotiations in the last two years. “This is a matter of principle – said Davis. – I should have supported the project but, in good conscience, I couldn’t support a strategy that in my opinion is not working for us. The prime minister is giving away too much and too easily to the European Union in the negiotiatons. I’m afraid that Bruxelles will take everything we offer and will demand more, because it’s what they always do. I hope that my resigntaion will lead to a radical rethink in terms of EU rules”.
Boris Johnson, foreign minister and euroskeptic leader, never denied his ambition to become prime minister and he is now on David Davis’ same page. First he says he wants to wait, and then he strikes a fatal blow to Teresa May’s government. New elections are coming. This is an extra disturbing factor destibilizing the markets, but all is quiet right now. The pound is holding steady against the euro and the dollar. The London Stock Exchange has had a positive close. Brexit doesn’t scare the markets anymore. In fact, the opposite is even more likely.
What if the Leaves won’t win the elections? And what if they will get an ambiguous result? At first, Brexit has been a dissenting vote against Cameron and now it’s quite the opposite: it will be e a political vote for or aganist Brexit, but this time the population will have a greater awarness. We will no longer be able to say that English voted without being aware of the potential consequences. Will they be brave, will they give it all as well as their scottish enemies or every enemy of the United Kingdom, as well as Irish, Indian, and all the people who have won back their freedom from the British Crown, or will they choose “the dark and subtle ability to compromise”?
After two years, the markets have already voted. In or out won’t change very much. In fact the news passes almost unnoticed. The only one who seems to notice it is the ECB president Mario Draghi, a man who has shown to be able to anticipate what is going to happen to the markets. Today, during a European Parliament hearing, Draghi stressed the importance of the unity of the European Union as an antidote to the Trump’s aggressive protectionism. “In these times of growing global instability, Europe needs to be united” the Governor of the ECB said. A trade war between Usa and China officially began on friday, and if it won’t stop, the tariffs that Usa and China slapped on each other’s exports could spiral from the current 39 billions to 50 billions and than even to 500 billions, threatening one trillion of commercial transactions, as Draghi say.
Now the markets have punished the Chinese Stock Exchange, who is down by 20%. Beijing has reacted devaluing the yuan to the psychological limit of 6.7 against the dollar. Obviously, the Chinese authorities deny it, currency reserves have not changed, but gold reserves have changed. It’s a trick that say a lot about the market freedom. No one wants to know the truth about numbers. The Chinese trade surplus is just 2,2% of GDP. A nation who has a 7% growth per year is starting a shift in the country’s economic model from export-led growth toward greater reliance on domersic demand. This trade war is already overpriced.
The Chinese tech are overpotected by the government, and they are more functional to the country’s domestic developement. Now would be a good time to get some of them, because the yuan lost value. Of course it take courage, you have to be brave and you also have to start dreaming a market free from the old structures, according to which the Usa tech are the center of the world. This is freedom, too.