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CITY LIGHTS

"Happiness ... It exists, I tell you. Listen. As a boy I always complained to my father because I had no toys. He told me: this is the greatest toy of creation, here is the secret of happiness .... Nothing ends. It only changes. If someone else says "like the good old days", I’ll throw myself out of the window ... That's what we all are: amateurs. We do not live long enough to become more. I thought you hated theater! I hate the sight of blood, but I have it in my veins. Well ... After all, I knew it would be like that. Time is a great author: always find the perfect ending Yes, life is wonderful, if you are not afraid of it. All it takes is courage, imagination ... and some money.”

Quotes from the film: "City Lights" by and with Charlie Chaplin.

The Trump Road Map continues. After the success achieved with Korea, the American president feels, and is, stronger. Raise your voice and now also screams against the "friends" of all time: Europe.

Illuminated reflectors and unlit reflectors. Not a day goes by when Donald Trump ignites new scenarios of tensions. The spotlight on North Korea has just been turned off while Europe and tariffs have been overshadowed. The tension on China seems frozen. The word has passed to diplomacies who work behind the scenes. Now another scene turns on the stage. It's the one with Tehran. It's a heated dialogue, a blow and answer with the United States. Trump continues to threaten the breaking of the nuclear deal signed two years ago by Obama, if no changes are made. Tehran, together with the European countries signing the agreement, does not intend to reopen the negotiations. It is possible that the temperature will heat up further in the coming days, with a possible further increase in the price of oil, in view of the decisive date of May 12: by Saturday, the White House will make a decision on the agreement.

Thanks to the end of the multi-year embargo, Iran is now able to produce over 2.5 million barrels a day, twice what it pumped when sanctions were in place. According to rumors, Donald Trump, Saturday could announce the exit from the agreement with Iran, accompanying it with some warlike proclamation, but without operational effectiveness: in this way, the White House would force the signatory European countries, to put pressure on Iran, so as to reopen the negotiations.Markets are taking measures; after almost a year of projections, they begin to understand the character Trump. As Chaplin teaches, father, the greatest created toy is the human mind, there lies the secret of happiness. Trump on the scene makes everyone believe that his game is international politics, but with his head is focused on US interests. And the heat of the debate with Iran has a clear unity of measure, the price of crude oil splattered on the levels of 27 November 2014

If the general public looks at Tehran, the markets focus on the impact of the price of black gold on inflation, rates and, hence, currencies and tariffs. The strong appreciation of the dollar, + 3.6% in 12 sessions, risks further unnerving the White House in terms of trade duties and trade balance. On the other hand, Trump remains only a character, the stage is the whole world and the markets are only theaters where some pieces of the entire story take place. The true author is the time that "always finds the perfect ending". Each market variable is so interconnected with the others that if on the one hand one influences the remaining ones the adjustment of the others dilutes the total effect.

This continuous change of scene is taking away interest in international politics, which always finds a way to adjust, to bring the fundamentals to the fore: quality of growth, profits, large M & A movements and corporate operations. The quarterly season gave us a new update on the fastest growing trends. The techs have amazed with quarterly above expectations, and an avalanche of cash that projects these companies among the major investors in new technologies, as if to say that their record will hardly be undermined. Apple amazes with a buyback of 100 billion euros. The telco sector is in full risk. Vodafone after a maxi 15 billion purchase in India now points to Liberty Global, the largest internet provider at outside the USA. In the Country with Stars and Stripes, the battle between Comcast and Disney continues with Sky. It is not only Vivendi, therefore, who believes in the convergence between media and telecommunications, this is a theme that heralds billionaires wars between industry riots and content struggles. In short, it is from the election of Trump that the markets continue to live with bogeys, atomic bombs in Korea, the commercial wars between the two world super powers, the return of the cold war, the rupture between the US and Europe. As time passes, the distinction between theater and reality becomes clearer. The rising indices and the quarterly figures above expectations remind us that Yes, life is wonderful, if you are not afraid of it. All it takes is courage, imagination ... and some money.

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