“I was born in the prairies where the wind blows freely and there is nothing that stops the sunlight. ...The sun, the darkness, the wind are listening to what we have to say. With all this land, why is not there enough room for the Apaches? Why does Occhio-Bianco want all the land for itself? (Geronimo).

“Nobody knows why God allowed the white people to take our land. Why did there have to be so many of them? Why did they have so many guns and so many horses? For many years, God made me a warrior. No weapon, no bullets could ever kill me. It was my spirit ... Now my time is over. Perhaps the age of our people is now over. “(Geronimo)

“I hate idealists: they always manage to create incredible confusion.” (Brig. Gen. Nelson Miles)

“I should never have given up: I would have to fight until I was the last man alive.”

Quotes from the film: “Geronimo, an American legend” by Walter Hill.

There is a very subtle war on the markets that has to do with economic dominance. China knows, the United States knows it. Nobody wants the fight, no more fighting like that. But everyone wants to predominate by repelling the other or better by using the opponent’s strength.

Translated into economic jargon, if China is able to produce chips at low cost, or I can exploit it, using those components to create products that ensure greater added value without becoming dependent or forced to produce them at home but the costs soaring. This exchange has to offer me an advantage, otherwise in the long run, the gap widens and even dependency.

Trump’s multi-plate scale moves on this precarious balance. China is an important partner, but the relationship must be for the benefit of the USA. Today it is at a strong disadvantage, 370 billion dollars. The goal, practically impossible according to analysts, is to reduce this gap of 200 billion a year.

Now if a war with your enemy is not convenient, embrace it. Beijing, after days of negotiations between delegations at the highest levels in Washington, has consented to new commitments for the purchase of goods and services “made in the USA”. At the end of the round of talks, a Sino-American joint statement said that two countries agree on the need for “effective measures to significantly reduce the US deficit in goods with China” and that to this end China will “increase its purchases of US goods and services”. Two sectors are mentioned in particular: agriculture and energy.

The White House has, for its part, moved to rehabilitate the Chinese telecommunications giant Zte, accused of violating sanctions and threatening national security, precisely in exchange for openings on agriculture. While still the Chinese authorities have unlocked the acquisition of 18 billion Toshiba memory chips by the US fund Bain Capital and will consider a go-ahead to the merger between the American Qualcomm and Nxp. It is a balance between state and global companies to understand which is the most advantageous way. Thus, Trump understood foreign policy. The search for an advantage or a conflict aimed at an improvement in the US situation: America First, which for someone is turning into America Alone. This policy is having reflections on all the major macro variables. From oil, with the strong influence of shale gas. On exchange rates, influenced by the tariff battles. And it also risks having non-negligible impacts on growth estimates. Who will win this war? The answer is not simple, because you no longer understand if it is a battle between States or Big Tech. The former have well-defined borders the latter are not. To date, most of the trade surplus in Germany and Japan is linked to export of cars. But the world of cars is revolutionizing.

And the change will happen faster than expected. Thinking of a car sector that in 20 years transforms, perhaps following the Uber business model, means forecasting very strong im- pacts on the price of crude oil, on the main producers and on the commercial balances of different countries and therefore on exchange rates. And we talked only about the car, with which the tensions between US-China, US Europe and US-Japan are high.

In Europe the Italian situation re-emerges, with the spread widening, dangerously in front of the promises without coverage of the new executive. It means weak euro, tension on financials.

There may be one hundred, ten thousand Geronimo, but their time is over. The Exchange is a continuum of self-destruction and new emerging realities. We must scrutinize change to anticipate it. New powers are emerging new balances will manifest. But our portfolio must be ready to re- plicate the change in advance.