«Trust...very important..in a relationship, it's also very important in a clinical situation. Why is trust the most important thing in making a breakthrough with a client? […] Now, the patient is here to say no. If trusting won't go past this, then there's really no point in them being in therapy».

Sean Maguire (Robin Williams) in Will Hunting – by Gus Van Sant.

Trust in the favorable outcome of the key factors that the economy has spread around the world; starting from the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. In fact, the Asian agency Xinhua reported further substantial progress in negotiations between the Chinese vice-premier Lie He and the US Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin. Furthermore, Donald Trump would be willing to close the deal as soon as possible, to avoid coming to the 2020 elections with the markets in turmoil.

There is also trust in China's economic policy initiatives. Operators think that they will begin to successfully stimulate the domestic demand as early as in the second half of the year. They are thinking, in particular, about the tax cut that will come into force in the coming weeks, as confirmed by Beijing’s authorities. At the moment a recourse to a higher deficit to support enlargement in public spending is excluded, a tool considered useful only in the short term but which would not solve the structural issues.

Trust is not lacking even on the delicate issue of Brexit, despite Theresa May’s latest poor show. On March 12, in fact, the British parliament also rejected the second proposal for agreement presented by the premier (242 in favor, 391 against). The European Council of 21-22 March is now in the spotlight, and will have to accept, or not, the request for an extension presented by the United Kingdom after Theresa May’s flop. Why are the markets confident? Everyone knows that a hard Brexit or a no-deal would not be good to anyone. For this reason, it is likely that the European Union will be "merciful" and will agree to postpone the date of the British exit from Europe in order to find a compromise solution.

Investors trust, although a bit cautiously, the future choices of the Federal Reserve, which is going to meet between 19 and 20 March. No one expects particular surprises on the cost of money in the United States: the central bank’s policy should remain "soft", in agreement with the latest statements by President Jerome Powell. Still, the meeting is considered important by the operators, because the state of health of the US economy will also be checked. In fact, in the following days new estimates on the growth of the GDP are going to be released, and The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank will also meet.

In Germany the topic of the moment is the merger between Commerzbank and DeutscheBank. The rumors are becoming more and more persistent and, over the weekend, they have been confirmed by the heads of the two institutions; although it has been specified that there is no certainty about the outcome of the operation.

As for Italy, Moody's seems to still have a minimum of trust in the country. The American agency has indeed left its Baa3 rating unchanged with a stable outlook. No surprises there, because a further cut would have led Italy to the so-called junk level. Some funds would therefore have been forced to sell the government bonds present in their portfolios, thereby raising the Btp-Bund spread and increasing the cost of interest payable on the public debt. The next verdict, of S&P, is expected by the end of April.

With regard to Boeing, trust is lacking. After the 737 Max aircraft crash, which fell on March 10 in Ethiopia with 157 people on board, the title continues to record strong sales. Several airlines may renounce the model involved in the crash. Investigations into the dynamics of the incident, however, are still ongoing, and only in the upcoming weeks will it be possible to have more details.

Trust is also scarce in matters of the negotiations between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un for nuclear disarmament. According to the Russian agency Tass, Korean vice minister of foreign affairs Choe Son-hui said: «We have no intention of compromising in any form to the demands of the US presented at the Hanoi summit in any form nor much less the desire or plan to conduct this kind of negotiation». The Korean dictator should soon make an announcement about it. The assumption is that Pyongyang may even resume its missile tests which, in recent months, had been suspended. But, despite the ugly turn of the negotiations, operators are confident that there will be no particular repercussions on the markets.